Tanker Orderbook

Our friends at the Ton Mile Trader did some interesting research on the tanker orderbook and I wanted to comment on that article and give our observations to go along with their findings.

We have been reading a lot about the tanker orderbook, and while it does loom large for this year, we are cautiously optimistic that delays will be larger than 10% as well and probably closer to 20% this year. The banks are now deciding what owners to stand behind and which ones to throw under the bus (aka The Credit Committee), and this will also have an effect on deliveries and delays.

We have had several discussions with yards, banks, and other owners and there have definitely been cancellations, although no official confirmations and the exact number may never be known. The yards are desperately trying to cover them up and re-sell the slots to stronger owners, so they never have to report it as a cancellation. However, almost every yard we have spoken to was offering slots abandoned by other owners for sale at slightly discounted prices so some owners must have walked away.

We do feel that the delays will strengthen the picture for tankers, however, as the orderbook is pretty bare going into 2012, and hopefully owners will be slow to order tonnage as long as the current orderbook remains an issue. Our expectations are based on owners learning their lesson, which isn't a given, so we remain concerned but are cautiously optimistic.